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March 28, 2024

Preview: Due March 29 - U.S. February Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to see third straight incrase
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March 28, 2024 2:45 PM UTC

We expect an advance February goods trade deficit of $91.5bn, up from $90.5bn in January and the third straight increase in the deficit, albeit another modest one. The deficit would then be the widest since April 2023. 

Chart AUD/USD Update: Pressuring strong support - background studies tracking lower
Paying Article

March 28, 2024 2:32 PM UTC

The anticipated test of strong support at 0.6500 is giving way to a minor bounce

Preview: Due March 29 - U.S. February Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE prices seen less strong than core CPI
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March 28, 2024 2:30 PM UTC

We expect February to deliver a 0.3% increase in the core PCE price index, above most recent months but slower than January’s 0.4% and a 0.4% rise in February’s core CPI, which was up only 0.358% before rounding. We expect a subdued 0.2% gain in personal income to underperform a 0.7% increase in

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Leaning lower, but downside to remain limited
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March 28, 2024 2:21 PM UTC

Anticipated losses have extended

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Brazil: Inflation Report Points to a Scenario Too Good for the BCB Board to Believe it
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March 28, 2024 2:20 PM UTC

The Brazilian Central Bank's Quarterly Inflation Report reflects uncertainty over disinflation and emphasizes caution in monetary policy. Despite slower expected disinflation and inflationary surprises in certain sectors, the BCB projects optimism with inflation nearing target. Labor market data sho

U.S. February Pending Home Sales and March Michigan CSI rise, March Chicago PMI slips
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March 28, 2024 2:14 PM UTC

February’s 1.6% rise in pending home sales is in line with expectations but a modest one after January’s 4.7% decline and makes a strong February increase in existing home sales look difficult to sustain. February saw a strong rise in existing home sales in 2023 too, which was not extended.

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating - room for a minor test lower
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March 28, 2024 2:01 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Consolidating test of the 104.75 Fibonacci retracement
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March 28, 2024 1:41 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a break higher to resistance at the 104.75 Fibonacci retracement

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Canada January GDP - Q1 looking much stronger than BoC had expected
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March 28, 2024 1:31 PM UTC

Not only did January Canadian GDP with a 0.6% rise exceed the preliminary 0.4% estimate, in data assisted by the end of a strike, the advance estimate for February is strong too with a rise of 0.4%. If that proves correct even an unchanged March would leave Q1 up by 3.5% annualized, well above the B

U.S. Initial Claims remain low, Q4 GDP revised higher with positive detail
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March 28, 2024 12:58 PM UTC

An already strong Q4 GDP outcome has been revised unexpectedly higher, to 3.4% from 3.2% though core PCE prices have been revised down to a target-consistent 2.0% from 2.1%. Initial claims remain low, falling to 210k from 212k, but there was a modest rise in continued claims to an 8-week high of 1.8

USD, CAD flows: CAD up as GDP outperforms expectations
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March 28, 2024 12:39 PM UTC

USD/CAD drops 20 pips as January GDP comes in at 0.6% - above the 0.4% consensus.

Chart USD/TRY Update: Cautious trade to give way to further gains
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March 28, 2024 12:17 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a bounce from the 31.7390 weekly low of 21 March

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Edging higher
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March 28, 2024 12:04 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a test above congestion resistance at 19.0000

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Under pressure in EUR-driven trade
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March 28, 2024 11:32 AM UTC

Cautious trade around 1.4700 has given way to a break lower

Europe Summary and Highlights 28 Mar
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March 28, 2024 11:26 AM UTC

The USD was generally stronger through the European morning, with the AUD and EUR showing the clearest weakness. 

Psychology for major markets Mar 28
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March 28, 2024 11:08 AM UTC

USD firm into Easter, JPY weakness stretched

FX Daily Strategy: N America, March 28th
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March 28, 2024 10:11 AM UTC

End of month and quarter may dominate ahead of the Easter weekend
GBP and MXN could be vulnerable on positioning, AUD could benefit
JPY and CHF may be favoured if risk is cut back
Data unlikely to have a major impact

This week's five highlights
Paying Article

March 28, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

U.S. Fed's Waller Signals Caution towards Easing
U.S. Final Q4 GDP To be Revised Marginally Lower 
BoJ Summary of Opinion Little Surprise
USD/JPY Continues to March North
Canada January GDP to Bounce

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Turning away from current year highs
Paying Article

March 28, 2024 9:27 AM UTC

Consolidation beneath congestion resistance at 0.9800 and the 0.9820 current year high of 27 March is giving way to a pullback

Chart USD/CHF Update: Poised for further gains
Freemium Article

March 28, 2024 9:17 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Leaning lower in EUR-driven trade
Paying Article

March 28, 2024 8:58 AM UTC

The anticipated test above resistance at the 0.8578 monthly high of 20 February has not been seen

Chart EUR/USD Update: Extending losses
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March 28, 2024 8:38 AM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to the anticipated break lower

Chart GBP/USD Update: Under pressure
Freemium Article

March 28, 2024 8:32 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend consolidation

Chart EUR/SEK Update: Extending strong rally from March low
Paying Article

March 28, 2024 8:10 AM UTC

Break above 11.5000 congestion further extend gains to reach the 11.5200, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Chart EUR/NOK Update: Extending gains
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March 28, 2024 7:45 AM UTC

Further extend strong gains from the March low to reach the 11.7000 congestion

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Still supported at 1.6500/1.6455 area
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March 28, 2024 7:21 AM UTC

Remains within narrow range mostly below the 1.6600 congestion

EUR, GBP flows: Weak German retail data puts some downward pressure on EUR
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March 28, 2024 7:19 AM UTC

German retail sales fall again, underlining European growth underperformance.

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Overbought daily studies caution pullback from the 1.0900 level
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March 28, 2024 6:49 AM UTC

Consolidating test of the 1.0887/1.0900 resistance with daily studies now deep into overbought areas

Asia Summary and Highlights 28 Mar
Paying Article

March 28, 2024 5:30 AM UTC

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi won't rule out any option against excessive FX moves
BoJ Summary of Opinion Little Surprise

Chart USD/CNH Update: Drifting within a narrow range below 7.2600
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March 28, 2024 5:25 AM UTC

 Little change, as prices extend consolidation within a narrow range below the 7.2600 level

Chart USD/INR Update: Backed off from 83.4500, fresh all-time high
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March 28, 2024 5:15 AM UTC

Settled back from the spike to 83.4500 all-time high as prices consolidate the overbought daily studies

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, March 28th
Paying Article

March 28, 2024 5:13 AM UTC

End of month and quarter may dominate ahead of the Easter weekend
GBP and MXN could be vulnerable on positioning, AUD could benefit
JPY and CHF may be favoured if risk is cut back
Data unlikely to have a major impact

NZD/USD flows: RBNZ signals no hike
Paying Article

March 28, 2024 5:12 AM UTC

New Zealand March consumer confidence plunges to 86.4 (prior 94.5)

USD/JPY flows: More jawboning
Paying Article

March 28, 2024 5:01 AM UTC

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi won't rule out any option against excessive FX moves
BoJ Summary of Opinion Little Surprise

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extending gains to fresh year high
Paying Article

March 28, 2024 2:32 AM UTC

Break above the 15800 congestion has seen follow-through to clear the January high at 15844

Chart USD/THB Update: Still firm, but overbought daily studies caution pullback
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March 28, 2024 2:19 AM UTC

 Still pressuring the upside to reach fresh high at 36.50

Chart USD/KRW Update: Extending gains, but stretched
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March 28, 2024 2:10 AM UTC

Consolidation below the 1347.00 high of last week has given way to break higher to reach fresh high above 1350.00

Chart USD/SGD Update: Extending consolidation below the 1.3500 level
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March 28, 2024 1:51 AM UTC

 Little change, as prices remains in consolidation below the 1.3500 level

Chart GBP/USD Update: Drifting narrowly above the 1.2600 level
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March 28, 2024 1:36 AM UTC

Extending consolidation above the 1.2600 level following bounce from the 1.2575 low.

Chart EUR/USD Update: Leaning lower in consolidation
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March 28, 2024 1:27 AM UTC

Little change, as prices holds firm above the 1.0800 level to consolidate losses from the 1.0942 lower high

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating, room for deeper pullback
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March 28, 2024 1:16 AM UTC

 Little change, as prices extend consolidation above the 163.31 low

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating below 151.97, fresh multi-year high
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March 28, 2024 1:05 AM UTC

 No follow-through on break to fresh multi-year high with gains limited to 151.97

Chart NZD/USD Update: Weighing on the .6000/.5985 lows
Paying Article

March 28, 2024 12:35 AM UTC

Leaning lower in consolidation at the .6000 level but oversold intraday and daily studies limiting the downside

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating, but still heavy
Paying Article

March 28, 2024 12:15 AM UTC

Little change, with prices still locked within a narrow range above the .6500 level

March 27, 2024

U.S. Fed's Waller - Recent data reinforces caution towards easing
Paying Article

March 27, 2024 11:41 PM UTC

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, March 28th
Paying Article

March 27, 2024 10:00 PM UTC

End of month and quarter may dominate ahead of the Easter weekend
GBP and MXN could be vulnerable on positioning, AUD could benefit
JPY and CHF may be favoured if risk is cut back
Data unlikely to have a major impact

North American Summary and Highlights 27 Mar
Freemium Article

March 27, 2024 7:47 PM UTC

Overview - USD/JPY fell on comments from Kanda refusing to rule out intervention while lower Bund yields weighed on the EUR.  

Chart USD/MXN Update: Trading at 9 year lows in MXN-driven trade
Paying Article

March 27, 2024 4:50 PM UTC

Consolidation has given way to a sharp break lower in MXN-driven trade

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating - background studies rising
Freemium Article

March 27, 2024 4:35 PM UTC

 Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, March 28th
Paying Article

March 27, 2024 4:00 PM UTC

End of month and quarter may dominate ahead of the Easter weekend
GBP and MXN could be vulnerable on positioning, AUD could benefit
JPY and CHF may be favoured if risk is cut back
Data unlikely to have a major impact