Analysis

  • The U.S. Neutral Rate: Threes Are the New Fours

    By Prajakta Bhide and Sheryl King Aug 22 @ 12:00AM

    The neutral rate, an abstract concept closely tied to potential growth, is vital for gauging the terminal point and trajectory of the Fed’s forthcoming rate-hiking cycle. In this piece, we take a look at historical estimates of the neutral rate and explain why it has fallen to a lower level.

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  • Brazil’s Election: Silva Goes For the Gold

    By Joao Pedro Ribeiro Aug 21 @ 06:30PM

    The tragic death of candidate Eduardo Campos has injected heightened uncertainty into Brazil’s presidential race over the past week. With former environment minister Marina Silva now running in Campos’ stead for the Socialist Party, the election is now certain to go into a second round (our view all along); though the dynamics have changed, we still see Dilma Rousseff as the slight favorite to win.

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  • RGE Policy Interest Rate Forecasts

    By the RGE Macro Strategy Team Aug 21 @ 09:25AM

    RGE predicts monetary policy movements in 2014 and beyond...

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  • Indian Banks: Ride the Reform Momentum

    By Paulina Argudin and Jennifer Kapila Aug 19 @ 02:40PM

    We examine the broad implications of Narendra Modi’s FY 2015 budget and recently proposed financial reforms for India’s banking sector.

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  • Indian Banks: We Prefer to Keep Things Private

    By Jennifer Kapila Aug 19 @ 02:40PM

    The outlook for Indian banks' balance sheets and earnings has improved but remains cloudy, particularly for public-sector institutions.

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