Analysis

  • EZ Trip Report: No Fiscal Leeway for Draghinomics

    By Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa Sep 15 @ 05:30PM

    Fiscal policy is set to remain unsupportive of aggregate demand and economic growth at both the national and regional levels, likely keeping the EZ stuck in a low-grade depression despite the ECB’s countermeasures to date.

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  • Swedish Election: Easier Monetary Policy and Weaker Krona on the Way

    By Brunello Rosa and Ariel Rajnerman Sep 11 @ 12:00AM

    The Social Democrats (SDP) are about to come back to power at the September 14 general election, after eight years of center-right government.

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  • Scottish Referendum: Risky Galore!

    By Brunello Rosa and Federico Rossini Sep 11 @ 12:00AM

    Some recent polls suggest a small lead for the “yes” (to independence) camp ahead of the Scottish referendum on September 18. We warned earlier this year (after the Swiss referendum on immigration quotas) that the risks associated with the Scottish referendum were high and being underestimated by the market, although, at the time, the “no” (“Better Together”) campaign had what seemed like a comfortable poll lead. Here, we explore these risks in detail.

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  • FOMC Preview: Time for a Shift in Guidance

    By Sheryl King and Prajakta Bhide Sep 11 @ 12:00AM

    We expect the FOMC to soften or eliminate its assurance of low rates for a “considerable” post-QE period—potentially at its September meeting.

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  • RGE Policy Interest Rate Forecasts

    By the RGE Macro Strategy Team Sep 10 @ 09:25AM

    RGE predicts monetary policy movements in 2014 and beyond...

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