Analysis

  • Africa Debt Update: Ghana Risks Over-Accumulating Debt Amid Borrowing Spree

    By Maya Senussi Jul 21 @ 02:00PM

    We identify which parts of frontier Sub-Saharan Africa are most likely to successfully take advantage of heightened DM demand for higher-yielding debt.

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  • RGE Policy Interest Rate Forecasts

    By the RGE Macro Strategy Team Jul 21 @ 09:25AM

    RGE predicts monetary policy movements in 2014 and beyond...

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  • Sanctions Relief: What Did Iran Get?

    By Paul Domjan, Jennifer Hsieh, Rachel Ziemba and Mark Dubowitz (Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Jul 18 @ 12:00AM

    On the eve of the July 20 six-month Joint Plan of Action (JPoA) deadline and against the backdrop of ongoing negotiations, we re-examine the state of the Iranian economy and its near-term outlook. This joint RGE-Foundation for Defence of Democracies study is intended to help policy makers better assess the benefits accrued from the reversal of sanctions momentum over the past year, alongside the improvement in sentiment (both domestically and internationally) toward Iran.

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  • Another Soft EZ Quarter in the Cards, but no Fundamental Slowdown

    By Annalisa Piazza Jul 18 @ 12:00AM

    Industrial activity fell sharply in the eurozone (EZ) in the May figures, following some downward surprises across the main EZ surveys over the course of Q2. This paper discusses the implications of these data points for the Q2 GDP result.

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  • Austrian Banks: Navigating the Von Trapps

    By Jennifer Kapila Jul 18 @ 12:00AM

    Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Hungarian idiosyncratic risk have thrust Austrian banks into the headlines for three consecutive quarters. EM European exposure is a well-known risk, but Erste Bank’s recent profit warning has clearly startled markets. This is but one of several recent EZ bank-related “one-offs,” that have reminded investors of the risks lurking beneath the balm of unconventional monetary easing. We explore those hidden depths in Austria in this paper and will do so more broadly for eurozone (EZ) banks in a wider thematic review to be published soon.

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