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Our Research
Featured
Spain Outlook: The First Rule of Holes Is ‘Stop Digging!’
Jun 18, 2013
Spain remains in double-dip recession, but measures taken reduce the chances of financial crisis and the sovereign losing market access.
Eurozone Outlook: Some Improvement, but Still Worse Than Necessary
Jun 18, 2013
We continue to believe that the EZ is in a prolonged Japan-style slump and will not return to meaningful economic growth for at least the next decade.
Brazil Outlook: A New Strategy From the BCB at Last?
Jun 17, 2013
The BCB’s newfound hawkishness is a clear positive development, but its initial moves will be insufficient to deal with structural issues behind Brazil’s underperformance.
Unveiling the New Abnormal
Jun 17, 2013
Forget the New Normal. Five years after the financial crisis, we've entered a period of increasing global instability that's almost certain to trigger new crises.
Region
North America
Recent Analysis:
Revised EIA Outlook Suggests a Healthy Global Crude Oil Buffer
If U.S. Yields Sneeze, Will EZ Peripheral Yields Catch a Cold?
Energy Market Review: A Story of U.S. Supply and EM Demand
The Treasurys Selloff: Storm in a Teacup or Alarm Bell?
U.S. May Employment Report: A Reminder to Keep Calm and Carry On
Will the Key Equity Market Driver Shift From Yield to Growth?
Current Regional Outlooks:
United States Outlook: Hiccups En Route to Medium-Term Relief
Macro-Market Overview: May 2013
Asia/Pacific
Recent Analysis:
Energy Market Review: A Story of U.S. Supply and EM Demand
Will the Key Equity Market Driver Shift From Yield to Growth?
No Need to Panic Over Japan’s Market Volatility
Abenomics and Japanese Equities: The Next Stage
Current Regional Outlooks:
Philippines Outlook: Pick of the Litter
India Outlook: Time to Admit the Slowdown Is Structural?
Indonesia Outlook: Pulling Forward the Pain
Hong Kong Outlook: Macropru Is Not Enough
Europe
Recent Analysis:
If U.S. Yields Sneeze, Will EZ Peripheral Yields Catch a Cold?
Energy Market Review: A Story of U.S. Supply and EM Demand
The Long and Winding Road to a Eurozone Banking Union
The Two Legal Souls of European Rescue Policies
Current Regional Outlooks:
Portugal Outlook: Slightly Better Than Before, but Still in Deep Recession
Poland Outlook: Slower Growth, Bigger Rate Cuts
Eurozone Outlook: Some Improvement, but Still Worse Than Necessary
Spain Outlook: The First Rule of Holes Is ‘Stop Digging!’
Latin America
Recent Analysis:
Argentina’s Debt Drama: A Game of Incentives
Venezuela Splits Down the Middle: Downside Economic Risks Increase
Capital Thirst: Which EMs Are Best Positioned to Absorb and Deploy Capital?
Argentina Debt Saga Update: The Calm Before the Storm
Current Regional Outlooks:
Venezuela Outlook: What Would Chavez Do?
Brazil Outlook: A New Strategy From the BCB at Last?
Global Issues
Recent Analysis:
Unveiling the New Abnormal
The Bursting of the Gold Bubble
Measuring Vulnerability to a Banking-Sector Crisis
Summary of Key Views
The Other Fat Tail: Monetary Policy and Bubbles
Q1 2013 Quantitative Country Analytics Update
Gold: The Clamor and Glamour Have Gone
Current Regional Outlooks:
Outlook Overview: Buy Some Time and Use It Well!
Middle East and Africa
Recent Analysis:
Revised EIA Outlook Suggests a Healthy Global Crude Oil Buffer
The Bursting of the Gold Bubble
The Battle for Crude Oil’s Risk Premium
Iran’s Golden Loophole
Current Regional Outlooks:
South Africa Outlook: Stagflationary Bind Tightens
Macro-Market Overview: May 2013
Asset Classes
Commodities
Recent Strategy:
Commodities Outlook: The Fundamentals Just Ain’t Right
Revised EIA Outlook Suggests a Healthy Global Crude Oil Buffer
Energy Market Review: A Story of U.S. Supply and EM Demand
The Bursting of the Gold Bubble
Currencies
Recent Strategy:
Eurozone Outlook: Some Improvement, but Still Worse Than Necessary
Brazil Outlook: A New Strategy From the BCB at Last?
South Africa Outlook: Stagflationary Bind Tightens
Sweden Outlook: Slightly Better, but Not Brilliant
Credit
Recent Strategy:
Spain Outlook: The First Rule of Holes Is ‘Stop Digging!’
Eurozone Outlook: Some Improvement, but Still Worse Than Necessary
Hong Kong Outlook: Macropru Is Not Enough
France Outlook: Slightly Better, Still Negative
Global Equity
Recent Strategy:
Spain Outlook: The First Rule of Holes Is ‘Stop Digging!’
Indonesia Outlook: Pulling Forward the Pain
Poland Outlook: Slower Growth, Bigger Rate Cuts
Eurozone Outlook: Some Improvement, but Still Worse Than Necessary
Financials
Recent Strategy:
Finance and Banking Monthly: Manufacturing Hope—Fed vs. ECB Policies
Finance and Banking Monthly: Are Financials the New Utilities?
LTROs: Where to Next?
Finance and Banking Monthly: Year of the Financial Transaction Tax?
European Banks: Waiting for Sovereigns
Finance and Banking Monthly: EZ Crisis Goes Viral—Exploring Trade Finance Links
U.S. Banks and Credit: The EZ Outbreak
Dashboards
Current Dashboard:
Interest Rate Dashboard - May 10, 2013
Eurozone Crisis Dashboard - April 12, 2013
Policy Rates
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GDP/CPI Forecasts
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Summary of Key Views
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