Analysis

  • DM Central Banks: Meet You at the Exit, Eventually

    By Brunello Rosa Jul 24 @ 12:00AM

    Given the range of growth and inflation outlooks now found across the DM landscape, G10 central banks’ monetary policy stances are more variegated than market pricing would suggest. Monetary policy decisions will also be shaped by central banks’ differing approaches to macroprudential management, adding a new dimension to their reaction functions.

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  • Housing Bubbles Part II: Macropru in Hong Kong

    By Adam Wolfe Jul 24 @ 12:00AM

    In response to rapid housing price inflation since 2009, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has imposed several rounds of macroprudential restrictions on mortgages, and the financial secretary has increased stamp duties on transactions. Nevertheless, prices continue to rise as structural factors—similar to those in Singapore, London, Norway and elsewhere—have caused the market to “rationally overheat.”

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  • RGE Policy Interest Rate Forecasts

    By the RGE Macro Strategy Team Jul 23 @ 09:25AM

    RGE predicts monetary policy movements in 2014 and beyond...

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  • Internal Devaluation: How Far Have Eurozone Unit Labor Costs Adjusted?

    By David Nowakowski Jul 23 @ 12:00AM

    Since the adoption of the single currency, there have been meaningful shifts in competitiveness in the eurozone (EZ). Rising price levels and wages in the periphery have damaged relative competitiveness, resulting in booms, surging imports, current account deficits and negative international investment positions. For the EZ to be sustainable, it is important that these internal imbalances reverse.

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  • Third Russia-Ukraine Gas War: EU Freeze Unlikely, but Risks Rising

    By Evghenia Sleptsova Jul 22 @ 05:40PM

    With Ukraine still cut off by Gazprom and tensions rising after the crash of MH17, we explore how the crisis could impact the European gas market.

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