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The ruling coalition led by Barison Nasional (BN) retained power after tight elections in which the party lost more seats to the opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR).

Given the ad-hoc reactive nature of eurozone crisis management thus far, market participants are eager to identify a systematic approach to properly price bank risk.

A sectoral breakdown suggests that current weakness in nominal imports does not reflect activity.

This paper discusses how Iran is exploiting loopholes in U.S. sanctions laws to obtain gold to replenish its FX reserves.

Our Thoughts

Global Economic Outlook

Central Bank Watch

Key Views

Scenario Analysis

Region

North America

Recent Analysis:

Recent U.S. Data Signals Suggest Slow and Steady Activity

U.S. Employment Steady in April, but Trend Still Unsatisfactory

FOMC Keeps Mum on Inflation Weakness at April Meeting

IMF/WB Meeting Takeaways, Part 3: Softer U.S. Data, QE and Macropru

IMF/WB Meeting Takeaways, Part 1: More Easy Money, More Problems

March FOMC Minutes: Talk of Tapering Will Be Tapered

Current Regional Outlooks:

Canada Outlook: Rocky Road Ahead

United States Outlook: Our Own Silver Linings Playbook

Asia/Pacific

Recent Analysis:

With Elections Passed, Time for BN to Get Malaysia's Fiscal House in Order

Debt and Deleveraging: Will China Turn Japanese?

India Trip Report: Policy Failures Dent Potential Growth; Is a Mea Culpa Too Little Too Late?

How China’s Credit Boom Will Bust

Current Regional Outlooks:

Taiwan Outlook: Losing Its Edge

Vietnam Outlook: Cautiously Optimistic

Asia/Pacific Outlook: From Abe With Love

Hong Kong Outlook: The Limits of Macropru

Europe

Recent Analysis:

Europe’s Playbook for Financial Crises

The Eurozone Malaise: From Economic Causes to Market Implications

The European Central Bank of Japan? Disinflation Is Looming

Hungary’s 2014 Election Scenarios: Unorthodox Policy Course (Dis)Continued?

Current Regional Outlooks:

Czech Republic Outlook: Year of Stagnation, Fears of Deflation

Norway Outlook: The View From the Top

Sweden Outlook: Weaker Than Necessary, With EZ Risks Looming in 2014

Emerging Europe Outlook: Another Rebuilding Year

Latin America

Recent Analysis:

Argentina’s Debt Drama: A Game of Incentives

Venezuela Splits Down the Middle: Downside Economic Risks Increase

Capital Thirst: Which EMs Are Best Positioned to Absorb and Deploy Capital?

Argentina Debt Saga Update: The Calm Before the Storm

Current Regional Outlooks:

Chile Outlook: The Perils of Growth

Latin America Outlook: To Each His Own

Global Issues

Recent Analysis:

Bull-Flattening Remains the Name of the Game

Summary of Key Views

The Other Fat Tail: Monetary Policy and Bubbles

Q1 2013 Quantitative Country Analytics Update

Gold: The Clamor and Glamour Have Gone

What Could Go Wrong for Equity Markets?

Capital Thirst: Which EMs Are Best Positioned to Absorb and Deploy Capital?

Current Regional Outlooks:

Outlook Overview: Buy Some Time and Use It Well!

Middle East and Africa

Recent Analysis:

Iran’s Golden Loophole

South Africa Trip Report: The DM/EM Growth Model Mismatch

Is Egypt Nearing the Day of Debt Restructuring?

Does Global Muddle Imply MENA Bubble?

Current Regional Outlooks:

MENA Outlook: A Tale of Two Regions

Sub-Saharan Africa Outlook: Keeping the Ball Rolling

Asset Classes

Commodities

Recent Strategy:

Iran’s Golden Loophole

Commodities: Rising Supply, but Sticky Prices

Gold: The Clamor and Glamour Have Gone

U.S. the Favorite to Win the LNG Boat Race

Currencies

Recent Strategy:

Four Reasons Riksbank Should Listen to Svensson

A BoJ Meeting Postmortem: What Now for Japan?

RGE Exchange Rate Forecasts

United Kingdom Outlook: Desperately Seeking Growth

Government Bonds/Rates

Recent Strategy:

The Eurozone Malaise: From Economic Causes to Market Implications

Bull-Flattening Remains the Name of the Game

What Drives Interest Rate Volatility?

Commodities Prices Drive Fall in Inflation Breakevens

Emerging Markets

Recent Strategy:

With Elections Passed, Time for BN to Get Malaysia's Fiscal House in Order

Debt and Deleveraging: Will China Turn Japanese?

How China’s Credit Boom Will Bust

India Trip Report: Policy Failures Dent Potential Growth; Is a Mea Culpa Too Little Too Late?

Credit

Recent Strategy:

Credit Outlook: Bubbles Aren’t All Bad…

Spain Outlook: Synchronized Austerity, ¡Ayayay!

United Kingdom Outlook: Desperately Seeking Growth

Italy Outlook: Political Instability to Take its Toll

Global Equity

Recent Strategy:

What Could Go Wrong for Equity Markets?

A BoJ Meeting Postmortem: What Now for Japan?

Capital Thirst: Which EMs Are Best Positioned to Absorb and Deploy Capital?

Japan Trip Report: Abenomics Takes Japan Into Uncharted Territory

Financials

Recent Strategy:

Finance and Banking Monthly: Manufacturing Hope—Fed vs. ECB Policies

Finance and Banking Monthly: Are Financials the New Utilities?

LTROs: Where to Next?

Finance and Banking Monthly: Year of the Financial Transaction Tax?

European Banks: Waiting for Sovereigns

Finance and Banking Monthly: EZ Crisis Goes Viral—Exploring Trade Finance Links

U.S. Banks and Credit: The EZ Outbreak

Dashboards

Current Dashboard:

Interest Rate Dashboard - May 10, 2013

Eurozone Crisis Dashboard - April 12, 2013

Policy Rates

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Click here for a free trial.

Learn About Our Services:

RGE Research

Our dynamic and intuitive macroeconomic research platform keeps you on top of the extraordinary shifts that transform our global economy, allowing users to uncover unique connections and insights. Discover the resource central banks and that 70% of the world's leading hedge funds, asset managers, PE firms, banks and corporations around the world depend on.

Our market strategists build on the work of our macroeconomic research team, incorporating market dynamics to answer crucial questions and generate actionable investment recommendations. RGE's Market Research and Strategy team gives clients actionable insight across six key asset classes:

• Currencies • Commodities
• Credit • Equity • Gov’t Bonds / Rates
• Emerging Markets • Financials
• Cross Asset Model Portfolio

RGE Strategy

Sometimes, reading research is not enough. Many RGE clients participate at the Roubini Direct Access level to gain a deeper understanding of specific issues. Through interactive live sessions, we engage with world-class thinkers, encourage knowledge sharing, idea generation, risk identification and validation of client initiatives.

Learn More »

For information on becoming an RGE Client, please speak with an RGE Representative in New York at +1 212-645-0010, or in London at +44 (0) 207 092 8850, or email americas@roubini.com for the Americas, europe@roubini.com for Europe, the Midddle East and Africa, and asia@roubini.com for Asia/Pacific.

GDP/CPI Forecasts

Access to this content is restricted to RGE clients.

If you have a client code, please enter it here to activate your client account.

Click here for a free trial.

Learn About Our Services:

RGE Research

Our dynamic and intuitive macroeconomic research platform keeps you on top of the extraordinary shifts that transform our global economy, allowing users to uncover unique connections and insights. Discover the resource central banks and that 70% of the world's leading hedge funds, asset managers, PE firms, banks and corporations around the world depend on.

Our market strategists build on the work of our macroeconomic research team, incorporating market dynamics to answer crucial questions and generate actionable investment recommendations. RGE's Market Research and Strategy team gives clients actionable insight across six key asset classes:

• Currencies • Commodities
• Credit • Equity • Gov’t Bonds / Rates
• Emerging Markets • Financials
• Cross Asset Model Portfolio

RGE Strategy

Sometimes, reading research is not enough. Many RGE clients participate at the Roubini Direct Access level to gain a deeper understanding of specific issues. Through interactive live sessions, we engage with world-class thinkers, encourage knowledge sharing, idea generation, risk identification and validation of client initiatives.

Learn More »

For information on becoming an RGE Client, please speak with an RGE Representative in New York at +1 212-645-0010, or in London at +44 (0) 207 092 8850, or email americas@roubini.com for the Americas, europe@roubini.com for Europe, the Midddle East and Africa, and asia@roubini.com for Asia/Pacific.

Summary of Key Views

Access to this content is restricted to RGE clients.

If you have a client code, please enter it here to activate your client account.

Click here for a free trial.

Learn About Our Services:

RGE Research

Our dynamic and intuitive macroeconomic research platform keeps you on top of the extraordinary shifts that transform our global economy, allowing users to uncover unique connections and insights. Discover the resource central banks and that 70% of the world's leading hedge funds, asset managers, PE firms, banks and corporations around the world depend on.

Our market strategists build on the work of our macroeconomic research team, incorporating market dynamics to answer crucial questions and generate actionable investment recommendations. RGE's Market Research and Strategy team gives clients actionable insight across six key asset classes:

• Currencies • Commodities
• Credit • Equity • Gov’t Bonds / Rates
• Emerging Markets • Financials
• Cross Asset Model Portfolio

RGE Strategy

Sometimes, reading research is not enough. Many RGE clients participate at the Roubini Direct Access level to gain a deeper understanding of specific issues. Through interactive live sessions, we engage with world-class thinkers, encourage knowledge sharing, idea generation, risk identification and validation of client initiatives.

Learn More »

For information on becoming an RGE Client, please speak with an RGE Representative in New York at +1 212-645-0010, or in London at +44 (0) 207 092 8850, or email americas@roubini.com for the Americas, europe@roubini.com for Europe, the Midddle East and Africa, and asia@roubini.com for Asia/Pacific.