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Analysis

How to Avoid a Greek Tragedy in Europe

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Greece is the lynchpin of eurozone sovereign risk. We advise going flat for now.

Greece is the debt crisis of the moment, but its problems are far from unique. On their resolution rides the fate of Greece's neighbors, the eurozone and perhaps the EU itself. Greece, like the rest of the PIGS, has an excessive public debt and fiscal deficit and is uncompetitive. A sovereign debt restructuring that reduces both the debt stock and interest burden and a substantial real exchange rate devaluation would clean up the national balance sheet, restore competitiveness and[...]

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