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Global Macro-Market Outlook

United States: Q1 2010 Outlook

Editor's Note: The data used in the following analysis is current as of January 30, 2010.

Real GDP (% change y/y)
2008 2009 2010
1.1 -2.4 2.7
CPI (% change y/y)
2009 2010
-0.3 2.0

  • The U.S. economy will weaken in H2 2010 due to the waning impact of the inventory cycle and fiscal stimulus. Growth will remain around potential during H1 2010 and then fall back below potential in H2 2010.
  • Personal consumption will remain sluggish going forward due to further correction in home prices, gradual deleveraging by households and a jobless[...]

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