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Economic Research

Q4 U.S. GDP Growth: Going Beyond the Headlines

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Recent data revisions indicating stronger Q4 2009 growth in the U.S. economy are largely a reflection of inventory liquidation, a phenomenon that will provide a transient boost to growth. A better barometer of overall economic health is the level of real final sales, which were revised lower in the second estimate of Q4 GDP, pointing to possible downward risks to our U.S. growth forecasts for 2010.
  • The reports coming out in the last few days are posing some serious questions about the strength of this recovery. Consumer spending was revised down, and it is running at[...]

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