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Analysis

U.S. Growth Outlook: Still Anemic and U-Shaped but Risks of a Double-Dip Recession Are Rising

By Nouriel Roubini
3/4/2010 | Last Updated

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A slew of poor economic data over the past two weeks suggests that the U.S. economy in 2010 is headed for – at best – a U-shaped recovery. The macro news, including data on consumer confidence, home sales, construction and employment, actually suggests a significant downside risk even to the anemic 2.7% growth which RGE forecast for H1. With the positive effects of the historic levels of fiscal stimulus due to fade this year, the U.S. faces at best a 1.5% growth rate in H2, which looks too close for comfort to a tipping point of a double-dip recession.

V, U and W

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RGE Global Outlook Update


Table of Contents


Economic Outlooks:
 Global | U.S. | Japan
China | Eurozone
Germany | France | UK
India | Brazil


Global Issues
Growth & CPI | Commodities

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