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Global Macro-Market Outlook

United States: Q2 2010 Outlook

Real GDP (% change y/y)
2009 2010
-2.4 3.0
CPI (% change y/y)
2009 2010
-0.3 2.0

  • Not yet a self-sustaining recovery: Fiscal stimulus will continue to be supportive of growth during the first half of the year but will fade out in the second half.
  • Income generation and labor market will continue to remain weak: Census hiring will show strong payrolls gains which will become strong payroll losses when the Census is over.
  • Anemic recovery, large slack in the economy and absence of inflationary pressures will keep the Fed on hold until end[...]

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