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Global Macro-Market Outlook

Brazil: Q2 2010 Outlook

Real GDP (% change y/y)
2009 2010
-0.2 5.8
CPI (% change y/y)
2009 2010
4.5 5.3

  • Above-potential economic activity and above-target inflation expectations will induce the central bank to initiate the tightening cycle on April 28 with a 50-basis-point (bp) hike, though a 75-bp increase cannot be ruled out.
  • Although the current account deficit will widen rapidly in 2010, large capital inflows will limit balance-of-payment (BoP) risks; however, the country will become more dependent on external financing, and the Brazilian real (BRL) more[...]

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