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Economic Research

U.S. Labor Market: Planting the Seeds for the Recovery

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The U.S. employment report surprised on the upside with very strong headline numbers that were not just the result of temporary census hiring, but also a strong rebound of private payrolls. As we expected, the materialization of job creation is attracting storms of discouraged workers back into the workforce. As a result, the unemployment rate rose to 9.9% from the previous 9.7%. Unemployment and underemployment remain stubbornly high and we maintain the view that a peak will be reached only in early 2011. Personal consumption was a growth driver in Q1 2010, as we[...]

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