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Economic Research

United States: Revisiting our “Year of Two Halves” Theme

  • We maintain our calls for a subpar recovery in the United States (and in most of the advanced world) and for a V-shaped recovery in much of the emerging world.
  • Leading indicators are pointing to a slowdown but not a double-dip recession.
  • With no inflation in sight, we expect the Fed to stay on hold for the remainder of 2010.

One of our favorite themes for our U.S. and global outlook continues to be what we call a “year of two halves.” As time goes by, economist musings about a strong V-shape recovery are becoming more and more sporadic; downward revisions to growth and[...]

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