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Global Macro-Market Outlook

Brazil: Q3 2010 Outlook

By Bertrand Delgado
Jul 10, 2010 | Last Updated

Real GDP (% change y/y)
2009 2010 2011
-0.2 7.0 4.5
 
CPI (% change y/y)
2009 2010 2011
4.3 5.6 4.7

    • A positive output gap and above-target inflation outlook will keep the central bank in tightening mode, but global jitters will prevent excessive hikes.
    • Politics will take center stage ahead of October presidential elections, but deviation from successful economic policies seems unlikely.
    • The main risks are a sharper-than-expected global slowdown and a destabilizing spike in risk aversion, hurting Brazil’s exports, weakening the local[...]

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