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Global Macro-Market Outlook

United States: Q3 2010 Outlook

Real GDP (% change y/y)
2010 2011
2.6 2.1 
CPI (% change y/y)
2010 2011
1.5  0.9 


  • The year of two halves – with growth sharply slowing in H2 – is playing out as we speak; the boost from the inventory cycle is over, additional fiscal stimulus support is missing and final demand continues to disappoint. 
  • Weak labor market and tight credit; sluggish income generation and tight credit will keep constraining the still-leveraged consumer.
  • The risk of deflation remains highly relevant; weak final demand and the slack in the labor market[...]

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