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Economic Research

Asia Week Ahead: Private Demand an Unlikely Antidote for Export Ailments

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Data releases in the coming week are likely to show signs of trouble to come for the region's exports and industrial production (IP), and recent improvements in private demand won't be able to make up the difference. We expect to see that Taiwan’s y/y export growth continued to decelerate in July, yet net exports will be neutral for Q3 GDP growth as high unemployment slows imports. Amid waning base effects and restocking, Chinese trade also looks likely to have slowed last month. Strong electronics exports drove up Malaysia’s IP in June, but slowing external[...]

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