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North America Focus: U.S.: Warming Up the Helicopter; Canada: Inflation Moderates Going Forward

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

We kick off our look at North America with the U.S., where incoming data are showing that growth in Q2 2010 was closer to 1.5%, compared with the advance estimate of 2.4%. With Q2 growth more anemic than even we expected, risks to our forecast for 1.5% growth in H2 2010 are heavily tilted to the downside. We will continue to monitor incoming data in Q3 2010 for additional signs of weakness. Looking at recent trends in inflation and inflation expectations, the gauges clearly display ongoing downward pressure; however, we consider the grim possibility that policymakers[...]

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