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Economic Research

Approaching a Dangerous Stall Speed

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The tailwinds of the first half of 2010 will become headwinds in the second half: The fiscal stimulus will turn into a fiscal drag; the inventory adjustment that boosted growth is done; and the base effects and the temporary Census hiring are gone.
  • Most components of aggregate demand will look worse in the second half of the year than in the first, possibly even worse than in Q2 2010; our baseline scenario now shows average real U.S. GDP growth at 0.9% in H2 2010 and at 2.5% for the year. Our current 2011 growth forecast stands at 1.5%
  • If growth were to remain at[...]

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