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Global Macro-Market Outlook

Global Overview: September 2010 Outlook Update

Global Economics Outlook, GDP and CPI data for Global Overview

  • The global recovery is much weaker than consensus expected. While 2010 has followed our script of a “Year of Two Halves,” signs of deterioration in the U.S. and global outlooks have prompted us to upgrade the probability of a double dip to 40%.
  • We maintain a central scenario that entails a sluggish, U-shaped recovery in much of the advanced world, with risks of L-shaped recoveries looming over Japan and the eurozone.
  • The recovery continues to be stronger in emerging markets, though these economies will still feel the slowdown. Absent another financial shock and a severe double dip,[...]

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