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Economic Research

Political Risk and the U.S. Midterm Elections

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A stalled economy, an unpopular Democratic president and a Republican congressional opposition warring not only with the White House but with its own grassroots all have political handicappers hedging their forecasts more than usual for this November’s midterm elections.

Polls show sentiment clearly leaning toward Republicans, who only two years ago lost by historic margins when Barack Obama swept into office, swelling Democratic majorities in both chambers. Neither economic data—almost uniformly pessimistic since the start of the summer—nor the earnest entry of[...]

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