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Economic Research

Wage Growth Pickup Needed in the U.S.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

After a fairly data-heavy period, this week’s U.S. economic calendar is significantly lighter, with the trade balance for September being the key data release. The trade data will provide further guidance on revisions to the level of real net exports included in the advance GDP estimate for Q3, when net trade shaved a hefty 2% off headline growth. The trade balance showed a sharp deterioration in August, but we expect to see improvement in September as a result of the weaker U.S. dollar.

Separately, last week’s midterm elections and FOMC brought no surprises; the[...]

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