Nov 16, 2010
12:40:00 PM
| Last Updated
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In March we observed that a long-term political cycle centered on the power transfer in 2012 was trumping the short-term cycle that would normally see monetary policy control transferred to Party technocrats. We assumed that the “short cycle”—aimed at curbing inflationary pressures and asset bubbles—would overtake the “long cycle”—aimed at allowing Party leaders to shore up their power—around mid-year, and China would begin hiking interest rates and taming credit growth. However, this transfer did not occur until the beginning of Q4 2010, in part[...]
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