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Economic Research

China: Tightening to Continue in 2011

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We expect China’s one-year lending rate to increase to at least 6.56% by the end of 2011. Between the conclusion of the Central Economic Work Conference in early December and the end of 2011, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will impose at least four additional 25 basis point (bp) hikes. Some of these hikes may be asymmetrical to narrow the margin between lending and deposit rates, which would discourage credit growth, give more bite to price signals and protect against the erosion of deposits. Banks are also[...]

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