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Economic Research

Upgrading Our U.S. Growth Forecasts for 2011: A Preview of Our Forthcoming U.S. Economic Outlook

  • We have upgraded our 2011 forecasts for U.S. GDP growth from the previous 1.8% to 2.3%—with stronger growth in H2 2011. We foresee headline inflation at 1.6% in 2010 and 1.2% in 2011.
  • The tail risk of a double-dip now is now much lower than before: around 15-20%.
  • The probability of a baseline U-shaped recovery remains at 60-65% and the upside risk of above-trend growth is now 15-20% for 2011 and possibly higher—but not much above trend—for 2012 (although far away from a V-shaped recovery…)

Note that our 2.3% U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2011 remains below the consensus[...]

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