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Economic Research

Q1 2011 Scenario Analysis: Still a U-Shaped Medium Term

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

We have just concluded a year of uncertainty, with a multispeed global recovery in a state of flux between U-, L-, V- and W-shaped trajectories with very fat negative tail risks. The pace of growth in H2 2010 has confirmed the absence of a V-shaped recovery, and we continue to believe that economic trends still tilt toward a gradual rebalancing scenario that is more consistent with a U-shaped recovery in the advanced world and stronger economic performance in the emerging world. While we expect global growth in 2011 to be a bit weaker than in 2010, the recovery will[...]

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