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Economic Research

United Kingdom: Inflation Getting Out of Hand?

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At 3.3% y/y in November, UK CPI is well above the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target and the near-term outlook for inflation has worsened further, over the past month, with higher global oil, gas and food prices, not to mention the increase in the rate of value-added tax to 20%. Hence, in the next few months, CPI may breach 4%, leading some commentators to question the BoE’s credibility and bring forward their expectations for a hike in interest rates.

However, our view is that higher CPI is primarily being driven by the temporary factors mentioned above and lagged pass-through from[...]

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