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Economic Research

Looking Beyond Base Effects and Data Volatility in India’s Industrial Production

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5:30:00 PM | Last Updated

India’s PMI data—which lead IP data by two months—suggest that IP jumped on a m/m basis in December, but base effects kept the y/y growth rate subdued. The end of the holiday season pulled down IP numbers in November, as the decline in consumer durables production reflects, and base effects are likely to keep consumer durables and capital goods output under pressure. Rising bank lending rates could be a downside for these sectors in the coming months.

Though firms announced capacity expansion plans in H2 2010, many firms may not undertake investment until Q2 2011 as they have[...]

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