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LatAm Weekly

Central Bank to Keep Tightening in Brazil

By Bertrand Delgado, Juan Lorenzo Maldonado and Renzo Merino
Feb 28, 2011 | Last Updated

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Brazil: The central bank will continue with the tightening cycle by increasing the SELIC rate by 50 bps to 11.25% this week. IPCA inflation is expected to be high again in February, but ease thereafter. GDP growth likely accelerated in Q4 2010 from Q3 2010, but leading indicators point to a soft start in 2011. In fact, we expect industrial output to have stayed in negative territory in January.
  • Mexico: The central bank will likely stay on hold at 4.5% on Friday given the negative output gap. Inflation has behaved positively lately; however, there are upside risks as[...]

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