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Global Macro-Market Outlook

Japan Outlook: Wham, Bam, Alakazam!

By Mikka Pineda
Mar 17, 2011 7:03:00 PM | Last Updated
Global Economics Outlook, GDP and CPI data for Japan

  • The March earthquake will tip Japan into a double-dip recession, and the apparent scale of destruction implies a longer recovery period than the 1995 Kobe earthquake required.
  • Though the cascade of disasters will deal a sharper, more sustained blow to productive capacity than Kobe did, the long-term spending needed to rebuild Japan—which is what counts in expenditure GDP—will be much higher.
  • The earthquake has pushed fiscal and monetary tightening further back, and inflation will remain contained even in the event that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervenes to weaken the[...]

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