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Q2 2011 Geostrategy Note: The Scent of Jasmine, Japan's Mega-Crisis and Other Global Drama

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Political risk lived up to potential in Q1 2011, and Q2 shows no sign that old stabilities will return. In the Middle East, in particular, old certainties and assumptions have fallen away following the “Jasmine Revolution” in Tunisia and the waves of social-media-accelerated risings that followed. Egypt’s revolution shatters decades of calculations for the United States, Israel and the West, as well as Iran, al Qaeda and other regimes that prefer instability to stability. It may take years, and more bloodshed like that raging now in Libya, before a “new[...]

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