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Ireland: GDP Contraction to Heighten Debt Burden?

The latest numbers on Irish GDP are bad news for those hoping that Ireland’s dynamic export sector will drag the country out of insolvency. Overall, in 2010, GDP contracted by 1% while GNP contracted by 2.1% y/y, although growth in Q4 in relation to the equivalent quarter of the previous year showed a positive trend (Figure 1).

The most worrying information is that growth in Q4 was weak (GDP fell by 1.6% q/q seasonally adjusted—SA—in Q4 2010). The increase of GNP by 2.0% q/q SA appears to be more positive, but could be attributed to “the decline in net exports of multinational[...]

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