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Global Macro-Market Outlook

Eurozone Outlook Update: Mind the Inflation 'Hump' in 2011

By Elisa Parisi-Capone
May 2, 2011 11:30:00 PM | Last Updated

The following is an update to our March 2011 Outlook.

The continuing rise in energy prices, increased pressure from administered prices and a change in the statistical treatment of seasonal products warrant an update to our average annual headline inflation (HICP) forecast for the eurozone to 2.8% y/y, somewhat above the current consensus of 2.5%. In 2012, we expect headline inflation to average 2.1%. Energy prices have remained the major HICP driver in H1, and we anticipate their contribution increasing further before peaking in July/August 2011 and gradually subsiding thereafter,[...]

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