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Global Macro-Market Outlook

Japan Outlook Update: Reconstruction Delays

By Mikka Pineda
Jun 14, 2011 2:30:00 PM | Last Updated

  • The shutdown of the Hamaoka nuclear power plant will exacerbate power shortages. Damage to semiconductor fabrication facilities will keep the supply chain tight for a variety of exports. Industrial production will recover by Q4 and reach full capacity by December.
  • The recession will bottom-out in Q2, with a V-shaped recovery in 2012. Core inflation will turn positive in 2013.
  • Political discord over funding mechanisms will delay the launch of the second reconstruction budget to August, after which Kan is likely to resign. Subsequent budgets will call for tax increases.

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