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Global Macro-Market Outlook

U.S. Outlook Update: No Smooth Sailing in the 'New Normal'

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3:00:00 PM | Last Updated

  • The trajectory of U.S. economic growth is fraught with uncertainty. A recession isn’t our main scenario—temporary headwinds will fade in H2 2011—but weak fundamentals and the need for balance sheet repair will continue to support our anemic growth story for a long time.
  • Prolonged external headwinds, sharper fiscal drag, a stalling labor market, falling home prices, faltering confidence and an equity market correction that sparks a negative feedback loop could tip the economy toward recession—this risk has risen.
  • The Fed will stay on hold till Q4 2012. If needed, the Fed may deliver QE3, but with stronger near-term inflation as a disincentive, QE3 might be too little and too late.

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