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Global Macro-Market Outlook

Vietnam Outlook Update: Don’t Stop Tightening

By Arpitha Bykere
Jun 22, 2011 3:30:00 PM | Last Updated

  • Aggressive monetary and credit tightening and exchange rate adjustments are giving the economy a soft landing, with growth around trend in 2011-12.
  • Inflation will peak in Q3 but remain elevated until early Q1 2012. Strong core prices and public and private investment suggest the need for further monetary and credit tightening. 
  • Slowing growth and financial-sector risks from bad loans could force policy makers to put fiscal and monetary tightening on hold, increasing investor concerns about Vietnam’s medium-term growth prospects and raising the cost of external borrowings.

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