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Central Bank Watch
Summary Table: RGE Policy Rate Forecasts and Market Interbank Rate Expectations
By Michael Manetta and the RGE Economic Research Team
Source: Bloomberg, RGE
Note: The data cutoff for current policy rate and market expectations is August 16, 2011.
1. Countries are ordered within DMs and EMs by GDP share of the world economy from the April 2011 IMF World Economic Outlook, based on PPP exchange rates.
2. Policy rate expectations for DMs are from overnight interest rate swaps and for EMs are from forward rate agreements. Note that various risk and term premia mean that expectations derived from markets may deviate from investors’ pure expectations of future policy rates. Real GDP and inflation forecasts are from Bloomberg surveys.
3. “Outlook” indicates policy rate forecasts on watch for an upward (↑) or downward (↓) revision, including a shift up (↑) or back (↓) of the anticipated rate hike schedule.