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North America Weekly

U.S. Inflation, Funds Flow and Retail; Canada Monetary Policy

By Prajakta Bhide, Tetiana Sears and Pushpak Sarkar
Dec 12, 2011 4:15:00 PM | Last Updated

U.S. headline CPI is expected to post a 0.1% m/m gain on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, while the NSA y/y pace is expected to soften marginally to 3.4% y/y after the substantial slowdown to 3.5% in October; we continue to expect inflation to cool back over the course of the year. The Fed’s Flow of Funds data showed a significant toll on household net worth from financial wealth in Q3, as we expected—any fallout of the EZ crisis on the U.S. is likely to occur primarily via the credit conditions channel, as well as the net worth channel. The Bank of Canada (BoC) described the historic low interest rate environment and well-functioning financial system as comprising “significant monetary stimulus,” underscoring our view that the BoC would rather opt to remain on the sidelines for an extended period of time.

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