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Argentina Debt Saga Update: The Calm Before the Storm

Following New York High Court Judge Thomas Griesa’s ruling on November 21 that ordered Argentina to pay a plaintiff holdout in full and prohibited the country or its paying agent from paying other bondholders without doing so, and the subsequent continuing appeal process, we see three broad scenarios as possible: 1) Judge Griesa’s ruling is over-ruled; 2) Judge Griesa’s ruling is upheld; or 3) a halfway house solution is found, whereby Argentina is told to pay part of the $1.3 billion claimed by holdouts. We believe Scenarios 2 and 3 are the most likely, as the Court of Appeals has already agreed that holdouts are indeed owed money and that Argentina must pay.

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