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Economic Research

Ruble Trouble in Russia: The Inconsistent Trinity at Work and the Need for a 20-25% Currency Depreciation

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I recently spent a few days in Moscow meeting with a variety of economic and financial officials and analysts, both in the public and private sector.

Until July of this year Russia was growing at an annual rate close to 8%, oil prices were peaking at $140 a barrel, the country was running a large fiscal surplus and a large current account surplus, it had a war chest of $600 billion plus of foreign reserves, its stock market, bond markets and currency values were strong and policy makers were thinking of turning the rouble into a major reserve currency, at least for the CIS bloc. This[...]

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