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Economic Research

The Dismal Outlook for the U.S., Global Economy and the Financial Markets

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Here is a below brief summary of many of the points that I have made for the last few months on the outlook for the U.S. and global economy and for financial markets:

  • The U.S. will experience its most severe recession since WWII, much worse and longer and deeper than even the 1974-75 and 1980-82 recessions. The recession will continue until at least the end of 2009 for a cumulative GDP drop of over 4%; the unemployment rate will likely reach 9%. The US consumer is shopped out saving less and debt burdened and now faltering: this will be the worst consumer recession in decades.
  • The[...]

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