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Economic Research

Global Stag-Deflation in Sight

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The financial wildfire has turned around the stagflationary trends seen earlier this year into a vicious cycle of global deflation in debt, assets, wages, and goods.   Headline consumer inflation has peaked in most of the developed and emerging world, except in places where food/fuel subsidies were recently rolled back or post-Q3 data are still unavailable.   According to the IMF’s October World Economic Outlook, the world’s average consumer prices have increased 6.2% y/y Q2 2008.   JPMorgan expects world CPI inflation to slow to 2.6% y/y Q2 2009.   Lower commodity prices[...]

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