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Economic Research

RGE Currency Outlook: The Brazilian Real

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Currency Volatility: In the absence of another massive global financial event, the unpredictability of the Brazilian real is likely to be lower in 2010, compared to the volatility experienced in H2 2008 and 2009 (BRL 1.55 to BRL 2.6 range), as the currency should trade in a narrower band against the US$ (BRL 1.55 to BRL 2). Capital controls, intervention and other administrative measures (not necessarily market unfriendly) will likely help in further easing volatility. Brazil’s net-creditor position, strong financial system, sound macroeconomic management and high levels of[...]

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