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Economic Research

Germany Economic Outlook, Q4 2009

Executive Summary

  • Despite the pronounced uptick in growth in H2 2009, the German economic recovery will prove anemic with below-trend growth beyond 2010;
  • Unemployment will pick up significantly in fall 2009 suppressing consumption;
  • Rising loan losses are further threatening the already weak, reform-needy banking sector.

Growth

A surprise expansion of Germany’s quarterly GDP required an upward revision of the economic outlook from RGE’s July forecast. While the German economy grew 0.3% q/q in Q2 2009 on the back of strong public and private consumption and investment in[...]

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