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Economic Research

Serbia Economic Outlook, Q4 2009

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Executive Summary

  • The IMF’s release of second and third loan tranches hinges on a viable spending-cut plan;
  • Ongoing trade balance adjustment should half the current-account deficit;
  • The currency has stabilized and financial pressures seem to be easing.

After posting robust growth of 5.4% in 2008, Serbia’s economy will decelerate noticeably in 2009, reflecting deterioration in export performance, weaker domestic demand and limited access to external finance. Serbia's GDP shrank by 4.0% y/y in Q2 2009, after contracting by 4.2% y/y in Q1. The €3 billion (US$4.1 billion) IMF[...]

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