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Economic Research

Japan Economic Outlook, Q4 2009

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Executive Summary

  • While fiscal stimulus packages in other parts of the world switch attention from consumers to infrastructure, Japan will need to move in the opposite direction;
  • The DPJ's aim to boost consumption puts Japan on the right track in the long term, but execution latencies will keep the economy lopsided toward exports in the medium term;
  • As the inventory-driven production rebound slips away without private demand to compensate, deflation will haunt Japan well into 2010 and postpone rate hikes until 2011.

Though the ruling party's loss at the national elections in[...]

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