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Economic Research

Eurozone Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

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Executive Summary

  • RGE reduces its 2009 growth forecast from -3.9% to -4.6%. For 2010, RGE expects 0.1% annual growth;
  • The unwinding of large internal imbalances is accompanied by a permanent output loss and disinflationary pressures for EMU member countries;
  • The bank-lending retrenchment of the European corporate sector especially in high current-account-deficit countries exacerbates the strains in the real economy.

In contrast to RGE’s forecast for a 1.7% quarterly contraction in Q1 2009 real GDP, the final Q1 2009 reading for the eurozone came in at –2.5% q/q (-4.8% y/y) after[...]

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