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Economic Research

Germany Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

Executive Summary

  • RGE forecasts an economic contraction of 6.3% for 2009 and a further decline of 0.1% for 2010.
  • The banking sector is still in a desolate state, jeopardizing economic recovery.
  • Germany runs the risk of falling into a W-shaped recovery.

Growth

Further deterioration of exports and investment activity in Germany required a downward revision of the economic outlook from RGE’s April forecast. The German GDP contracted by 3.8% q/q during the first quarter of 2009, a decline of 9.9% y/y with only private consumption and government spending showing positive contributions.[...]

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