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Economic Research

Russia Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

Executive Summary

  • A sharp fall in industrial production as well as severe financial vulnerabilities will lead Russia to a sharp contraction;
  • Large fiscal deficits will mostly erase Russia’s sovereign funds in 2009 and 2010;
  • Higher oil prices in the long-term may reduce urgency of structural changes needed for growth. 

The fall in oil production and revenue, deteriorating investment and industrial output will lead Russia to a severe economic contraction of over 8.5-9% in 2009, despite government investment. Despite the doubling of crude oil prices since mid-March, financial[...]

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