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Economic Research

Japan Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

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Executive Summary

  • Depleted inventories revived demand for exports but the end of restocking will obviate further exports;
  • Chinese demand for Japanese exports ultimately depends on U.S. and European demand;
  • The return of deflation will worsen prospects for domestic demand growth as wages fall. 

Japan's economy is in terrible shape and is on track to perform the worst among the G3 in 2009. Being the most trade-dependent, Japan suffered the worst GDP contraction among major industrialized nations in Q1 2009 (-14.2% y/y, -3.8% q/q), the steepest drop since records began in 1955 and the[...]

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