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Economic Research

China Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

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Executive Summary

  • Government investment contributing to growth acceleration but sustainable recovery uncertain;
  • Overcapacity, asset bubbles, increase in policy loans key stimulus risks;
  • More social spending needed to boost consumption share of growth. 

Prompted by aggressive government investment, which has offset the weakness of private demand and exports, Chinese growth has improved markedly from the near stall experienced at the end of 2008, but a strong recovery is not yet clear.  Manufacturing surveys indicate expansion, construction is growing, fixed investment is surging and,[...]

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