Critical Issues
Will Trade Ministers Conclude the Doha Trade Talks in 2010?
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Will Trade Financing Costs Continue to Ease in 2010?
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Background:
Global trade contracted over 10% in 2009, the first negative annual decline since 1982. With global growth recovery appearing sluggish and trade recovery lagging behind, world trade is expected to remain subdued in 2010. Strengthening commodity prices and Chinese stimulus-related stockpiling temporarily boosted trade in bulk goods in 2009, but the impact was short-lived. Trade in 2009 also received a boost from inventory restocking and fiscal stimulus and these factors might continue to support trade flows until mid-2010. After that, global trade will grow slowly owing to weak private demand, especially in the U.S. and EU, and slow improvement in trade finance. In the coming years, global trade is unlikely to post strong growth rates of the pre-crisis years. Deleveraging in the West might lead to structural changes in global trade flows, and the direction of trade might shift from East-West trade to South-South trade.
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Associated Readings
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CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Jan 26, 2010
World trade monitor: November 2009
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Joaquim Oliveira Martins and Sónia Araújo
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Wells Capital Management
Jun 18, 2009
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