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Briefing
The Recovery of Global Trade Flows
Appears in:
Advanced Economies, Asia/Pacific, Emerging Markets, Europe, Frontier Markets, Latin America, Middle East and Africa, North America, Macro View, International Trade and Globalization
Critical Issues
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Background:
Global trade contracted over 10% in 2009, the first negative annual decline since 1982. With global growth recovery appearing sluggish and trade recovery lagging behind, world trade is expected to remain subdued in 2010. Strengthening commodity prices and Chinese stimulus-related stockpiling temporarily boosted trade in bulk goods in 2009, but the impact was short-lived. Trade in 2009 also received a boost from inventory restocking and fiscal stimulus and these factors might continue to support trade flows until mid-2010. After that, global trade will grow slowly owing to weak private demand, especially in the U.S. and EU, and slow improvement in trade finance. In the coming years, global trade is unlikely to post strong growth rates of the pre-crisis years. Deleveraging in the West might lead to structural changes in global trade flows, and the direction of trade might shift from East-West trade to South-South trade.
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Associated Readings
Analysis
CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Jan 26, 2010
World trade monitor: November 2009
Analysis
OECD
Jan 27, 2010
International Trade Statistics: Trends in Q3 2009
Analysis
EIU
Feb 01, 2010
World economy: EIU's latest trade assumptions
Research
IMF
Jan 13, 2010
Open Markets Would Support Rebound in Trade in 2010
Analysis
Rabobank
Dec 22, 2009
Globalization at a crossroads: Challenges for the future
Analysis
VoxEU
Nov 27, 2009
The great trade collapse: What caused it and what does it mean?
Opinions
Financial Times
Oct 14, 2009
Lex: Container shipping
Analysis
VoxEU
Nov 27, 2009
The trade response to global downturns
Analysis
OECD
Oct 29, 2009
Understanding the world trade collapse
Analysis
VoxEU
Nov 27, 2009
The collapse of global trade: Update on the role of vertical linkages
Analysis
VoxEU
Nov 27, 2009
Global trade in the aftermath of the global crisis
Analysis
International Economy
September 2009
Collapse in Global Trade
News
Bloomberg
Aug 31, 2009
Shipping Rates Seen Falling 50% on China, Fleet Size
Analysis
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Aug 4, 2009
World Trade: Pirated by the Downturn
Analysis
World Bank
August 2009
The trade response to global downturns: Historical evidence
Analysis
Economist
Jul 24, 2009
World trade: Unpredictable tides
Analysis
World Trade Organization
Jul 22, 2009
World Trade Report 2009: Trade Policy Commitments and Contingency Measures
Analysis
IMF
Aug 25, 2009
Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement
Analysis
VoxEU
Jul 08, 2009
The Great Synchronisation: What do high-frequency statistics tell us about the trade collapse?
Analysis
Wells Capital Management
Jun 18, 2009
The “New Normal” Will Likely Be … Ahh … Normal!?!
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