Mar 1, 2011
| Last Updated
- Our medium-term call for gradually rising rates is now subject to oil disruption concerns. The path of long-term rates in the G4 government bond markets will depend greatly on how these risks play out in the oil-producing regions of North Africa and the Middle East. Each central bank’s tolerance for energy-led inflation differs, with the ECB at one end and the U.S. Fed at the other (the Bank of Japan, mired in long-standing deflation concerns, is out of the picture). This has different implications for benchmark yields.
- Our U.S. Treasury curve flattening recommendation (2y-10y)[...]
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